Modelling inbound international tourism demand in small Pacific Island countries

ABSTRACT

In this study, we estimate inbound international tourism demand models at the individual source market-destination and overall destination levels for Fiji, Cook Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu from 2002Q1 to 2016Q2 and Samoa from 2002Q4 to 2015Q3. Tourism demand is measured by visitor arrivals, tourism prices, the source country’s real GDP, tourism prices in substitute destinations, seasonality and structural breaks, all of which are considered plausible determinants. The models are estimated using the ARDL-bounds approach, structural breaks are identified using the Bai and Perron break test, and seasonality is tested using the US Census Bureau’s X-13 ARIMA-SEATS methodology. The study is important because it presents new evidence on price, income, and substitute price sensitivity, word of mouth, seasonality, and structural-breaks effects in Pacific island destinations.     

Exploring competitiveness in banking sector of a small island economy: a study of Fiji

The paper explores the competitiveness in the banking sector in Fiji using the Panzar and Rosse (J Ind Econ 35:443–456, 1987) method. We compute the concentration ratios and Herfindahl–Hirschman index based on total assets, loans, and deposits to examine the concentration level. To compute the Panzar-Rosse H-statistics, we use fixed effect regression method duly controlling for heterogeneity. The results show banks in Fiji exhibit monopolistic behavior and are biased towards monopoly/conjectural variation short-run oligopoly upon examining the significance level of the upper and lower bounds of the computed H-statistics. Moreover, the results also show that banks revenue are influenced positively by interest expenses, capital adequacy ratio, and the number of branches; and negatively by personnel expenses, other operating expenses, and firm size measured by total assets.     

Renminbi： the Next International Reserve Currency？

Currency is an iconic expression of a country＇s economic dominance. Even if the economic benefits of currency dominance are questionable, countries and their governments do seem to prize that status. E...     

Choice in Computer-Mediated Environments

In the last several years, the increased diffusion of computer andtelecommunications technologies in businesses and homes has produced newways for organizations to connect with their customers. These computermediated environments (CMEs) such as the World Wide Web raise new researchquestions. In this paper, we examine the potential research issuesassociated with CMEs in five areas: (1) decision processes, (2) advertisingand communications, (3) brand choice, (4) brand communities, and (5)pricing.     

Bhagwati and Ramaswami: Why it is a Classic

This paper expounds on a well‐known and widely influential paper ‘Domestic Distortions, Tariffs and the Theory of Optimum Subsidy’ (1963) by Bhagwati in collaboration with V. K. Ramaswami. The message of the paper, which set in trail a number of publications, was that in the case of a small open economy, distortions that steer the economy away from Pareto‐optimal outcomes should be dealt with at their source. The Bhagwati and Ramaswami paper established the case for free trade in the presence of domestic distortions, and proved wrong the received wisdom of the day that in the presence of distortions such as externalities, wage rigidities and distorted factor and product markets, a move from free trade to autarky might improve welfare. The article succinctly demonstrated that the correct policy intervention which avoided welfare losses was one which rectified a distortion at its source and is justly regarded as a classic. But in the profession of economics those who question received wisdom are regarded with scepticism at first and then with the riposte that it is all old wine served in new bottles. The Bhagwati‐Ramaswami breakthrough was met with the remark ‘it is all in Meade’. This paper takes issue with this judgement. The paper not only refutes the suggestion that the Bhagwati‐Ramaswami article has its origins in Meade but also provides a lucid and succinct exposition of Meade's analysis of divergences and shows how Bhagwati and Ramaswami's analysis is vastly different.     

Injury Investigations in Antidumping and the Super-Additivity Effect: A Theoretical Explanation

Empirical evidence shows that in injury investigations in antidumping cases conducted by the United States International Trade Commission, the probability of a positive finding is higher when the number of defendant firms is larger, holding constant their total market share. In the paper we offer a theoretical explanation of this finding. We show that the presence of many exporters exacerbates the free-rider problem, which leads every firm to invest less on defense. Thus for the same market share, injury finding is more likely to be positive for many small sellers than a few large sellers. JEL no. F13, L13     

Building participatory HIS networks: A case study from Kerala,India

This paper addresses the challenge of developing participatory networks to support the design, development and implementation of Health Information Systems (HIS) in the context of public health in Kerala, India. It is argued given the nature and complexity of HIS, there is the need to bring together our understanding of participation from two streams of development theory and IS design and development. While development theory provides interesting insights on how to enable participatory processes, they tend to not consider technology. Further, traditional participatory design in Information Systems research has its origins in Western workplaces, often quite divorced from the context of public health in developing countries. In trying to combine these two streams of learning, we propose and develop the concept of participatory networks. Drawing upon an ongoing empirical analysis of an action research effort to introduce, scale and sustain Health Information Systems in Kerala, this paper elaborates on the nature of participatory networks that come into play, and the various mechanisms and purposes of participation with the different network partners. In the discussion section, four areas of re-conceptualization of participation in the context of HIS in developing countries are identified: (1) creation of participatory networks; (2) increased context sensitivity; (3) focus on outputs of participation, not just inputs and techniques; and, (4) focus on structural aspects of participation, not just behavioral issues.     

An experimental study of alternative preparation aids for international negotiations

We test the relative effectiveness of alternative preparation aids in the context of an international negotiation. We consider three forms of training: reading material, a course on negotiation, and an expert system (NEGOTEX) expressly designed to train negotiators. We conducted a laboratory experiment involving 66 pairs of negotiators—one of each pair being American and the other Chinese. Results suggest that in this context, the course had the greatest effect on performance, followed by NEGOTEX, and then followed by reading material. In addition, we found that training effects were additive: multiple forms of training lead to better results than individual forms of training, suggesting that (1) training forms complement and do not substitute for one another, and (2) multiple forms of training should be considered, especially when stakes are high.     

Why India Lags Behind China and How It Can Bridge the Gap

Though India has been growing at six per cent annually since the late 1980s, it trails behind China, which has been growing at ten per cent per annum since 1981. The single most important factor explaining this difference is the relatively poor performance of Indian industry. Whereas the share of industry in China's GDP rose from 42 per cent in 1991 to 51 per cent in 2001, it remained virtually stagnant in India. By contrast, services grew rapidly in India, expanding from 42 per cent in 1991 to 48 per cent in 2001. With the information technology sector less than two per cent of the GDP, services growth was largely in the informal sector. Approximately 77 per cent of India's workers live in rural areas. To bring a large chunk of this workforce into the modern sector, India must achieve a much higher growth in the traditional, unskilled‐labour‐intensive industry. Growth in the information technology sector gives India an extra lever but cannot be the main engine of transformation. Therefore, the right approach is to walk on two legs: traditional labour‐intensive industry and the modern IT industry. Both legs need strengthening through further reforms. The paper suggests four specific reforms, three for industry and one for IT, necessary to achieve the transformation to a modern economy.